Thursday, July 14, 2005

Earnings Season 'analysts'...

We've just started another corporate earnings season. And, as usual, the analysts estimates are more wrong than right. They continue to be cited as the primary source of information, and companies continue to issue 'warnings' if their expected earnings will not meet or beat the analysts estimates.

So right from the start, the companies have to provide guidance to erroneous (read wrong) data from analysts - the same analysts that have proven themselves worthless for every earnings season one can remember.

Now, let's take it one step further. Let's say a company reports earnings that are well ahead of these analysts estimates. A great (current) example is Apple Computer (AAPL). Apple reported "its best quarterly profit ever". (Kudos to Apple.) Apple reported earnings of 37 cents a share. Analysts were expecting 31 cents.

Aside from the obvious fact that the analysts greatly underestimated the earnings, the mainstream media then has these same 'professionals' on as guests, and ask them why Apple did so well, and what their thoughts are for the future of the company.

Did I hear that right? Why did they do well and what do you expect from them? THESE GUYS JUST PROVED THEY HAVE NO CLUE LET ALONE ANY IDEA OF WHY THEY DID WELL OR WHAT TO EXPECT. So why are you asking them these questions? Why are they even on as guests?? What purpose do they serve other than filling air time?

Here is a simple thought.

Stop it.

*Here are two articles worth a read with further insight to the subject:
Analysts Analysis - An Oxymoron
Innacurate and Providing No Direction

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